Practice Tip of the Week | Futures Thinking

By Dawn Webb, MSN, RN

The future is not something that happens to us. It is the world we weave from the confluence of past gifts, present decisions and future-directed action.

Foresight International

Futures thinking is not an effort to predict the future. Instead, it is using present-day issues to prepare for the future, considering what could happen if we stay the course. The pandemic has highlighted the strengths and weaknesses of our healthcare system; now that we have this knowledge, what will we do with it?

It may seem challenging to think about the future, but we have an abundance of information to inform us. It’s just a matter of learning how to think futuristically and seek the right answers. Futures thinking takes into consideration plausible futures and considers all outcomes, including the best, the worst, and anything in between. Thinking about the future may cause some discomfort, but temporary discomfort far outweighs the consequences of pretending everything is okay when the evidence clearly states otherwise (R. Slaughter, 2019).

There are many concerns when it comes to the future of nursing, but through our experiences, we can learn and grow and change the future for the better. A simple way of assessing the future needs in nursing can be done through a foresight-based SWOT analysis that considers the possibilities, problems, partners, and platforms alongside a team in a collaborative brainstorming session:

Possibilities: Opportunities, Transformational Ideas, New Technologies, Growth, Breakthroughs

• Problems: Threats, Weaknesses, Barriers, Challenges, Gaps, Competitors
• Partners: Advocates, Strategic Alliances, Adjacencies, Coalitions
• Platforms: New Models, Approaches, Abilities, Operations, Plans, Systems
  

Futures thinking helps deepen our understanding of evolving issues and aids us in exploring the future implications nurses and healthcare systems are facing. The process is intended to help nurses and healthcare leaders identify the opportunities and threats occurring and take the appropriate action to change or improve future outcomes.

Here are the key points of reaching a preferred future:

• Understand the history
  Futures thinking requires having a set goal and then taking the necessary steps to fully understand the history of it. You and your team cannot reach an understanding of the future of a specific topic or issue without first understanding its history.
• Look at the near future
  You need to know what the current forecasts and trends are and how they relate to that topic. In many cases, this includes recognizing the political, economic, social, technological, legal, and environmental factors and how they can impact your goal.
• Realize assumptions
  Futures thinking must go beyond just the voices in the room. Consider the people who will be affected by your future. It is important to make sure there are opportunities for diverse thinking in order to better understand the assumptions you have made.
• Think about alternative futures
  After reviewing those assumptions, you can create future scenarios. It’s likely that you and your team will have multiple scenarios based on different factors. Consider all the possibilities when you think about what the future could look like.
• Identify the preferred future
  The preferred future is the scenario that is chosen based on how it positively impacts the majority of the people involved. This is why it’s so important to have diverse voices throughout the process.

Foresight and futures thinking are tools that can be developed to keep us flexible, adaptable and ready for what may come. As health care changes, nurses and nurse leaders can use this time to develop a greater capacity for strategic thinking and work together with their teams to better ensure positive outcomes.

REFERENCES

Foresight International

The Futures School, Strategic Implications Worksheet from the Natural Foresight® Framework

Richard Slaughter (2019) A Great Reversal?